UPDATED: January 16, 2006
One good thing about film awards in Hollywood is that you don’t have to watch every single film to give your comments, and on a way lesser degree, your prediction. All we need is the endless supplies of news on many critics’ associations which would tell to which direction the ultimate award event (aka The Academy Awards) will go to, and of course, the gut feeling resulted from skimming and scanning through every single news we encounter. A comprehensive, thorough reading needs not be done in assessing the list, because the same films and names will keep appearing on different critics’ choices. If you find the fact hard to believe, kindly visit Oscarwatch and The Envelope or even the Mecca of film fans, Internet Movie Database to prove my words there.
Again, welcome to the Golden Globes, the only award event where we can see the stars getting drunk on their tables before their names being called to come on stage to accept the awards. This is also the only award where A Star is Born is deemed a classic film on a history of filmmaking despite many critics’ thrashes, the only award where you might remember Christine Baranski’s toilet tissue peeking out from her shoes rather than undeserving Goldie Hawn being nominated for a trash like The Banger Sisters, and the only award where a non-English language film can not compete in both Best Picture category.
Yet, a Golden Globe is a Golden Globe after all, a glitzy, glamorous event where popularity is important above many others, and a path before we involve further in Oscar betting.
Consider this a warm-up, alritey?!
On with the predictions.
BEST PICTURE DRAMA
Will win: BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
Should win: BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
Comment: More than the fact that the film has been listed numerously in many other critics’ awards, the film needs to win to prove how Hollywood has departed from its conservative constraints. At least, they recognize Elton John, why not for a much better cause?
BEST PICTURE COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Will win: WALK THE LINE
Should win: PRIDE & PREJUDICE
Comment: Hollywood loves stories about their own inhabitants who struggles with their fame status, and make that alcholic, drug abusive, and many other crimes to contrast with their talented skills. And Hollywood also loves the fact that both leads belting out their own voice to portray their characters. Yet, the reason why I push Pride and Prejudice to win is simply the fact that it brings back a feel-good quality as done in its true-to-original adaptation of literary works.
BEST ACTOR, DRAMA
Will win: PHILLIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN (CAPOTE)
Should win: HEATH LEDGER (BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN)
Comment: Hoffman has many overdues from his leading role in Flawless, Love Liza, Owning Mahony, to his scene stealing roles in many films, Talented Mr. Ripley being one of them. His portrayal of a respected author should be highly regarded, yet knowing Ledger plays a cowboy with a tormented soul might be another interesting option to watch.
BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA
Will win: FELICITY HUFFMAN (TRANSAMERICA)
Should win: FELICITY HUFFMAN (TRANSAMERICA)
Comment: Looking at the list of nominees, we can only wonder what Maria Bello is doing here instead of being in the Supporting category. Inserting Gwyneth Paltrow only gives a false hope to her, and both Charlize Theron’s and Zhang Ziyi’s chances dim along with poor reception of their films, commercially for the former, and critically for the latter. Thus, there’s no way Huffman does not win in this category, period.
BEST ACTOR, COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Will win: JOAQUIN PHOENIX (WALK THE LINE)
Should win: JOAQUIN PHOENIX (WALK THE LINE) or JEFF DANIELS (THE SQUID AND THE WHALE)
Comment: Listen to Joaquin Phoenix belting out Johnny Cash’s tunes, you’ll understand why he suffers from mental exhaustion upon completing the film as much soul has been given to his character.
The only biggest threat in this category will come from Jeff Daniels who has earned the best critical raves in his career so far, by far.
BEST ACTRESS, COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Will win: REESE WITHERSPOON (WALK THE LINE)
Should win: REESE WITHERSPOON (WALK THE LINE)
Comment: Refer to my comment for Joaquin’s above, with another addition on the fact how lovable Reese is within Hollywood community.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will win: PAUL GIAMATTI (CINDERELLA MAN)
Should win: MATT DILLON (CRASH)
Comment: It is interesting how many critics’ awards suddenly find themselves rushing to give their awards to Giamatti after he said in a certain magazine that he feels lack of confidence in winning the category. The tactic works very well indeed, and remember how Hollywood likes to redeem its past failures, in this case, not recognizing his more heart-rending performances in both American Splendor and Sideways that surpass his presence in the nominatef film. On the other hand, Matt Dillon proves that he matures well with his most challenging role to date, and an Oscar nomination to the very least is not much to ask.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will win: MICHELLE WILLIAMS (BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN)
Should win: SCARLETT JOHANSSON (MATCH POINT)
Comment: Hollywood likes to reward actors portraying characters of long-suffering spouses, perhaps suggesting that there are many of them living in the town. Yet, when was the last time an award is given to a femme fatale?
Will win: ANG LEE (BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN)
Should win: ANG LEE (BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN)
Comment: He is a master of storytelling involving several characters’ point of views without sentimentalizing it a la Steven Spielberg, or without making it visually grand a la Peter Jackson, or without wits a la Woody Allen, or without quick-cutting, fast-paced style a la Fernando Meirelles, yet Ang Lee always carries his films ahead with emotional touches that often knock us from within.
George Clooney might be considered as a newbie in this category.
Will win: CRASH
Should win: GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK
Comment: It’s only my gut feeling that Good Night, and Good Luck should win on this category, as the film’s premise looks good to me, in which it bravely puts no holds barred in depicting one of the bleakest moments in American history. However, at the times of heightened self insecurities in a multi cultural world, Crash will win for its brave initiative in tackling racial issues fairly well, to which no stories overlap one another in this multi-layered film.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Will win: JOHN WILLIAMS (MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA)
Should win: JOHN WILLIAMS (MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA)
Comment: He gets helps from two maestro in classical music, Yo-Yo Ma and Itzhak Perlman, and imagine all of them sharing the same stage on the grand night on March.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Will win: “A LOVE THAT NEVER GROWS OLD” (by Emmylou Harris, from BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN)
Should win: –
Comment: Personally, I find Wunderkind feels too gothic for a family-friendly film, unlike any songs from “Lord of the Rings” series with its similar eerie feeling that serve the series well. Other than that, Travellin’ America has too much country twang as sung by Dolly Parton in her iconic voice which may not be a cup of tea of Hollywood. And the country feels of A Love That Never Grows Old never goes out of pitch with the tendering and comforting feels as provided by Emmylou Harris’ voice.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Will win: PARADISE NOW (PALESTINE)
Should win: KUNG FU HUSTLE (HONG KONG)
Comment: Too bad the Stephen Chow’s labor of love is not listed as official entry from the country, opting for mediocre Perhaps Love instead. And with the commotion over the distribution of The Promise which surely will diminish its chance to win, Paradise Now should be able to encounter the sentimentality of Joyeux Noel.
There goes my predictions, and do drop by after Tuesday morning GST+7 or +8 to say anything you want to blurt out!